It is now
about 18 years since Virginia Postrel suggested in The Future and Its Enemies that our political, intellectual and
cultural landscape was increasingly being defined by “stasis” and “dynamism”:
“How we feel
about the evolving future tells us who we are as individuals and as a
civilization: Do we search for stasis
– a regulated, engineered world? Or do we embrace dynamism – a world of constant creation, discovery, and
competition?”
The author
was writing about the United States, but the ideas in her book have much wider
application. The old political divisions seem to breaking down all over the
world. On many issues there is not much political distance between social
reactionaries, green reactionaries and technocrats. The social reactionaries
yearn for the kind of world our parents lived in, green reactionaries yearn for
a premodern society and technocrats fear change that is not managed by
governments. They all see virtue in government regulation of innovation. As a
result, we see strange alliances forming on issues such as fracking.
By contrast,
dynamists share beliefs in a spontaneous order. They emphasize individual
flourishing and individual responsibility, and the possibilities for progress
that emerge when people are free to experiment and learn. They care about
“protecting the processes that allow an open-ended future to unfold”.
Virginia
suggested that dynamists don’t yet share a political identity. She notes that
they may view themselves as libertarian, progressive, liberal or conservative. That
still seems to be true. Many dynamists eschew politics. Of those who take an
interest in politics, people who see themselves as libertarians or classical
liberals would have least objection to being labelled as dynamists - if they
understand what the label is intended to mean.
Misunderstanding
of the meaning of ‘dynamist’ might be a problem. To the uninitiated, the word
could appear to refer to history’s hastening agents who seek to activate what
they perceive as ‘historical forces’ to achieve a particular vision of future society.
I can’t think of a positive word that adequately captures the idea of allowing
an open-ended future to emerge. A new word might be required: e.g. ‘catallaxist’
- a believer in catallaxy, or spontaneous order.
Advances in technology
have helped those who believe in spontaneous order to achieve some important
victories over the last 18 years. For example, the emergence of services such
as Uber are helping to break down regulation protecting incumbent service
providers.
Yet, on
balance, it looks to me as though the stasists have been winning the economic
policy debate. In the aftermath of the GFC, deregulation has often been
perceived as a cause of economic crisis, overlooking the effects of the
regulatory environment in encouraging some financial institutions to believe
that they were too big to be allowed to fail. The actions of some leaders of
the economics profession in distancing themselves from market liberalisation
policies has lent weight to populist demands for a return of stasist policy
prescriptions.
As I see it,
identifying myself as a believer in spontaneous order does not involve an
ideological commitment never to advocate government intervention under any
circumstances. It has to do with where the onus of proof should lie. In the
case of migration, for example, I would argue that the onus should be on those
favouring restrictions on international movement of people to justify why such restrictions
should exist. It is argued that free international movement of people is incompatible
with welfare systems in which immigrants can qualify for social assistance, but
it is not obvious why immigrants should qualify for social assistance. A more persuasive argument immigration
restrictions can possibly be mounted in terms of potentially adverse social
consequences of a large influx of migrants with different cultural traditions.
Similar
considerations apply in relation to new technology. It is easy to mount a
persuasive argument for regulatory restrictions on access to nuclear technology,
but that is obviously an extreme example. Some statists have argued that innovations
in home entertainment should be regulated to avoid adverse social impacts, but they
imply that individuals are not capable of learning how to make sensible
decisions for themselves and their families about use of new technology. Some
of us had difficulty in making good decisions about use of our leisure time
following the introduction of television, but that is not a powerful argument
for the government to make such decisions for us. Of course, as suggested by Daniel Lattier, we have a responsibility to learn to use technology wisely,
i.e., temperately. Similar considerations have applied in many aspects of life,
e.g. food, beverages, sex, since ancient times.
How should
we view decisions about whether to enhance brain power with neural lace? I
ended a recent post on this topic suggesting that neural lace will not be worth
having unless it can be developed in such a way as to enable humans to protect
the privacy, autonomy and responsibility that is integral to their individual
flourishing. I should have added that the decision to have a neural lace
implant will be best left for individuals to make for themselves. Anyone wants
to argue that choosing to use some particular form of neural lace would be tantamount
to selling oneself into slavery, is of course free to try to make a case for
regulation or prohibition.
My reading
about potential consequences of artificial intelligence (see blog posts here
and here) has left me feeling somewhat more cautious about new technology, but that
does not mean that stasis now makes more sense than dynamism. Virginia makes some
relevant points. She acknowledges: “the open-ended future can be genuinely
scary, the turmoil it creates genuinely painful”. However, she follows with the
observation:
“Statist
prescriptions … stifle the very processes through which people improve their
lives – from the invention of new medical treatments to the creation of art. In
their quest for stability, statists make society brittle, vulnerable to all
sorts of disasters”.
Like other
technological innovations, the advent of super-intelligent machines has
potential to expand the possibilities for human flourishing. It will also
expand the range of technology by which the flourishing of individual humans
could be threatened by other entities, including governments. New technology will not alter the fundamental principle
of liberalism and that adult individuals should be free to flourish as they
choose, provided they do not interfere with the rights of others.